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The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (cdixon.org)
41 points by prakash on Jan 3, 2010 | hide | past | favorite | 20 comments


I may be more than a little biased, but this post _screams_ Augmented Reality.


But does anyone actually dismiss Augmented Reality as a toy? Current implementations are generally at a toy level, but isn't the concept of obvious benefit?


Why aren't GPS with POV displays considered a crude precursor of augmented reality?


Another symptom: does the US military use it in the field? Augmented Reality also falls into this category.


I always wanted an overlay with the bus schedule. Or GPS navigation. Or whatever.


Another sign: the US military uses it in the field. Augmented Reality falls into this category.


I remember in early 2000s when two-wheeled segway by Dean Kamen was on the verge of launch, it was secretly presented to a few ultra rich guys and was declared as even bigger than the PC. The opposite was true though in this case, this toy never took off.


I know hindsight is 20/20, but I have a hard time envisioning the thought process that led to such a declaration. The damn thing costs as much as a good used car and offers few benefits over walking or riding a bike but comes with a host of limitations. I still don't understand the appeal.


The reason so many things start off as "toys", is because engineers desire technically sweet problems to solve, not user needs. What engineer doesn't love solving a problem, just because it hasn't been solved before?


Well, that and any big new thing that's not a toy quickly gets crushed or acquired by an established company.

Engineers invent non-toys all the time. If those inventions are at all useful, someone will pay big bucks (either to the engineer or to a big team of competing engineers) to have it.


The headline immediately made me think of this: http://infolab.stanford.edu/pub/voy/museum/pictures/display/...


so, it's twitter!


Twitter was the next big thing a year ago. At this time time they are officially a big deal.


Yes, Twitter has passed the "next big thing" torch over to Foursquare.


That's the GoWalla ripoff? ;-)


Is twitter more than a toy? The only real feature they ever added from an outside perspective (someone who doesn't use twitter) is someone elses search technology.

Maybe because of twitter realtime is the next big thing.


All cats have tails, my dog has a tail, ...


I was actually being ironic :)


It's not a "toy", it's a "minimum viable product".


Well I mean, toys are also fun to use and if something is going to cross the chasm then it needs to be accessible enough for the mainstream and everybody likes toys.




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